Seasonal Climate Watch
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”However, ENSOu2019s impact is limited for the coming seasons until the next summer season which may be impacted by an El Nino state if early predictions are correct. Caution is advised however as changes in the ENSO prediction may change during winter and only monitoring is advised at this stage.nn#### 1.tOverviewnnThe multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of the country and below-normal rainfall for the south-west during all predicted seasons. As most of the rainfall during winter is expected in the far south-west, the below-normal rainfall conditions in those areas are expected to have a significant impact.nnMinimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.nn#### 2.tSouth African Weather Service Prediction Systemnn**Ocean-Atmosphere Global Climate Model**nnSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts, which involve coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM), the first of its kind in both South Africa and the region. Below are the first season (April-May-June) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”nPL52D5X7jGfK2i6″},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/914″,”position”:1,”id”:”NNIfC5W8xUg75iHr”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 1: April-May-June, AMJ (2023) global prediction for total rainfall probabilities*”,”position”:2,”id”:”Jj40VOv2wJOcL7T4″},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/915″,”position”:3,”id”:”oc4ZGVdZIg8Xhe17″},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 2: April-May-June, AMJ (2023) global prediction for average temperature probabilities*”,”position”:4,”id”:”U2QLwIgsEC46eWo5″}]